The Economics of New Year's Resolutions

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The Economics of New Year's Resolutions

By: John A. Baden, Ph.D.
Posted on January 22, 2014 FREE Insights Topics:

 

I find economics fun and useful. Fundamentally, it is not about money.  Rather, economics is a mode of thinking focused on two things, information and incentives.

Unless deliberately randomized, as in a fair lottery or coin flip, most decisions are based on information and incentives.  It's no accident that's the way the world works.  Incorporating information and incentives into our decision-making fosters success and survival. Here is an example involving New Year's resolutions to exercise.

There is overwhelming and ever increasing information that regular and moderately serious physical exercise, 60 to 80 percent of one’s maximum heart rate for 30 or more minutes, five times a week, is a near magic elixir for mental and physical health. 

This is especially true for the middle aged and elderly.  Below is the beginning of an article by the American Heart Association, "Physical activity improves quality of life."  I've read dozens of such pieces published by highly respected organizations and find the link between exercise and good health is ever stronger.  

I have never found scientifically sound arguments in opposition.  Nearly all educated, successful adults know the relationship between health and exercise, it's positive.  This is reflected in New Year's resolutions. 

According to a study in the Journal of Clinical Psychology, about 50 percent of us make New Year’s resolutions every year. The most popular resolution is often to lose weight, followed closely by exercising more.  

The Center for Disease Control recently estimated that over a third of U.S. adults and nearly a fifth of U.S. children are obese.  They stated what alert people know; obesity-related health conditions include heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes.

And naturally, weight loss and exercise are strong complements; they reinforce one another.  Well-toned and fit people feel better about themselves, especially when exercising.  Rubenesque standards of beauty may indeed return from the 17th century--but they haven't yet. 

NGR's [sic] "Morning Edition" of January 20th had a feature on a new development, health clubs for obese people, those 50+ pounds over weight.  Many such individuals felt uncomfortable in regular clubs.  It's amazing what the market process delivers. 

Let's consider economic perspectives on New Year's resolutions to exercise.  People who make this resolution usually do one of two things; they join a health club or buy home exercise equipment.  

Some do both.  These understand what most economists deny; sunk costs count.  Sunk costs influence behavior.  Believing this, some increase the investment in their promise to exercise.  They believe the dual investment will increase the probability of honoring the resolution to exercise.

Alas, the odds of success are not good: "...36% of Americans’ 2014 New Year’s resolutions were around personal fitness.  Perhaps you have been part of the 50% of people who make resolutions who break one or all of your goals by mid-January." (http://www.moarthritis.org/2013/12/move-your-way-into-2014.html)

And research shows that less than 10 percent of people who resolve to change with the start of a new year actually do.

Further:

Blue Diamond Growers, the world’s largest almond processing and marketing company, has released the results of a recent national Harris Interactive survey revealing that nearly 75 percent of Americans’ New Year’s resolutions will focus on eating healthier and improving fitness. The challenge is that nearly a quarter of Americans will fail to keep their resolutions for more than three months. (http://www.bluediamond.com/documents/New_Years_Resolution_Release_Dec_13.pdf)

There are many dozens of articles directed to health club managers on retaining members.  Essentially, they say: " Make it valuable to belong."  My focus here is on the second option, buying home exercise equipment.  Nearly everyone gets it wrong. Economics explains why.

Widespread serious and regular, disciplined exercise among adults is a recent phenomena.  And no one buys home exercise equipment for its intrinsic beauty; art deco exercise machines were indeed rare and are non-existent today.

Exercise machines lack the beauty of old sewing machines or guns. Nobody displays them as objects of beauty.  Nor do most take the pains to make their workout area attractive as the Queen Mary did.

The Queen Mary had a tiny First Class Gymnasium, a mere 720 square feet. The walls were shaded by the use of seven different timbers placed in horizontal bands.... The various bandings were separated by narrow sections of silver-bronze metal, which enhanced the horizontal treatment. The floor was laid with black and white marbleized squares of Korkoid creating a checker-board design. (https://www.queenmary.com/stay-aboard/fitness_center.php)

People economize on scarce resources.  Personal space is scarce.  Hence, after buying home equipment on sale, say at Sears, Wal-Mart, or at a discount sporting goods store, people look for their least valuable space to place them.  Often they select a basement room, garage, or out building. 

These are usually places used for utility purposes; they are not like living rooms or dens.  They are not where people like to hang out--unless it's also a "man-cave." These may be the only reasonable places available but such locations work against the workout goal.

If exercise is a serious New Year's resolution, here is an alternative.  Pick or build a space that is a natural magnet, a place you want to be. Is it attractive?  Independent of the purpose, would you like to be there?  Surely not in the average basement with exposed pipes, wiring, and floor joist.  If you are serious about working out and want to do it at home, this is important.

If exercise is a goal you want to sustain, make the investments to make your WO space a magnet for your time.  Appearance matters a great deal.  People are drawn to some places, repelled by others.  Nice rugs, windows or pictures, and a good TV add a lot to a WO room.

Then find good used professional equipment. All health clubs maintain and regularly rotate their machines, usually once every two or three years.  These are built for 280-pound football players to work them 24-7-365.  These will sustain home use for a very long time with minimal maintenance.  They are nearly bullet proof.

Consider these factors if you want to sustain your New Year's resolution to exercise. Especially if you elect to do it at home. When resources are scarce, people economize. Successful home workout spaces are inherently expensive.  In addition to finding companionship and reinforcement of goals, health clubs are attractive.  I suggest joining and meeting friends there.


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