Some Good News

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Some Good News

By: Pete Geddes
Posted on February 27, 2008 FREE Insights Topics:

Here’s some good news worth sharing. It’s from a paper by Harvard economist Andrei Shleifer.

“The last quarter century has witnessed remarkable progress of mankind. The world’s per capita inflation-adjusted income rose from $5,400 in 1980 to $8,500 in 2005. Schooling and life expectancy grew rapidly, while infant mortality and poverty fell just as fast. With the conspicuous exceptions of China and the Middle East, the world has made significant strides in democratization.... Compared to 1980, many more countries in the world are democratic today.

“We’ve seen remarkable declines in infant mortality in all regions, with the worldwide population-weighted average dropping from 64.5 to 37.5 per thousand births. The World Bank reports that between 1980 and 2000, the share of the world’s population living on less than $1 a day fell from 34.8 percent to 19 percent. It forecasts that the number of people living on less than $1 a day will continue to fall sharply despite population growth, and account for 10 percent of the world’s population by 2015. Billions of people in Asia have been lifted out of poverty thanks to economic growth; Sub-Saharan Africa, with little or no economic growth, is where the really poor are concentrated.”

By most measures, this appears to be a very good time to be alive. What about trends in the U.S.? Is our modern, industrialized lifestyle killing both us and the environment? Here’s some data.

For all races and both sexes combined, long-term trends in cancer deaths have been declining since the early 1990s. In 2007, U.S. life expectancy was 78 years. (In 1990, life expectancy was 75.4 years.) The global life expectancy for males is 61 years. For females it’s 65. The reasons for this discrepancy are not fully understood. Some attribute the difference to biology; others point out that men are employed in more hazardous occupations. Behavior certainly plays a role, as men generally drive, smoke, and drink more than women.

For women and children the news is also good. In 2007, American infant mortality dropped to 6.4 deaths per 1,000 live births and has been on a general decline since 1958. The steady decrease is due to improvements in public health, nutrition, and medicine; and a decline in unhealthy behavior, such as smoking.

The problem that can derail this progress is the looming entitlement crisis. Medicare alone would absorb 74.8 percent of income tax revenue by 2080, and Social Security 17.0 percent. It is grossly irresponsible to pretend this problem away.

It looks like life in a modern, industrial society extends your life. But doesn’t our material comfort here depend on exploiting our environment and the environment in the developing world? Paul and Anne Ehrlich, who surely deserve (but will never receive) an award for the most predictions gone bust, confidently and sanctimoniously assert, “Sadly, our nation is also at present the biggest engine of ecological destruction on Earth....”

This is naive, willfully ignorant nonsense. Steven Hayward of the American Enterprise Institute explains why in his annual Index of Leading Environmental Indicators. He writes:

“...the United States remains the world’s environmental leader and is likely to continue as such. Environmental improvement in the United States has been substantial and dramatic almost across the board…The chief drivers of this improvement are economic growth, constantly increasing resource efficiency, innovation in pollution control technology, and the deepening of environmental values among the American public that have...changed behavior and consumer preferences. Government regulation has played a vital role to be sure, but...[w]ere it not for rising affluence and technological innovation, regulation would have much the same effect as King Canute commanding the tides.”

Richer societies are healthier, cleaner, and more resilient than poor ones. Without exception, the worst cases of environmental pollution occur in poor countries, especially those lacking democratic institutions.

While there is no question economic activity creates environmental problems, it also provides societies with the means to deal with them responsibly. (Climate change is only the most recent example.)

So cheer up! And repeat after me: “Affluence and freedom are friends of the environment and are the only pathways to a sustainable future.”

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