Winning the Lottery

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Winning the Lottery

By: John A. Baden, Ph.D.
Posted on December 29, 1999 FREE Insights Topics:

BOZEMAN, Mont.--At the beginning of a century, it's tempting to assess one's place in the era just passed. For me and most Americans the evaluation is clear, compelling and unambiguous: We hold a winning lottery ticket.

America is not utopia. No place ever is. However, we are fortunate to live in the most successful large scale social experiment ever conducted.

People who reflexively blame America first recoil at this truth. Indeed, those who believe we've become hedonistic heathens slouching toward Gomorrah, or those deep ecologists who fear we face an impoverished future, may ultimately turn out to be right.

However, by any measurable standard we've made immense progress since 1900. This success is most evident in our physical health and material well-being.

We've also made great environmental progress by reducing the impact of our industrial footprint. Our production is much cleaner and less toxic. We are far more sensitive to the importance of robust ecosystems than were our great-grandparents.

Large portions of marginal farmland have gone back to woodland and brush. Some wildlife species like pronghorn, bison and turkey have made spectacular recoveries. However, through bad laws and outright subsidies, we have lost much of our wilderness and many of our fisheries.

Again, it's America, not utopia, but on balance the average person's life is wonderful far beyond precedent. Below is an overview of data from the Joint Economic Committee of Congress that shows just how far we've come.

Since 1900, our standard of living has risen dramatically. The average family's expenditure on food has dropped from 44 percent to 15 percent of annual income, and we're spending half of that 15 percent in restaurants.

We're living 30 years longer and death from infectious diseases is only 7 percent the rate of a century ago. We produce one-fifth of the world's goods and our average incomes are one-fifth higher than the Europeans or Japanese.

The average American is nearly seven times as wealthy today as in 1900. Innovations and increased efficiency have dramatically decreased the work time required to purchase products has greatly improved.

Here are some examples:

Work time required to buy a quart of milk in 1900: 23 minutes In 1999: 3.5 minutes

A loaf of bread in 1900: 16 minutes In 1999: 3.5 minutes

A 3-pound chicken: 200 minutes In 1999: 14 minutes

10 kilowatts of electricity: 644 minutes In 1999: 4 minutes

A phone call from New York to Los Angeles: 90 hours In 1999: 2 minutes

In 1900 only a quarter of Americans had running water, 15 percent a flush toilet. Today over 99 percent have both. Ninety-four percent have electricity compared with 5 percent in 1900.

In terms of material abundance and health, the utopian dreams of 1900 have been surpassed in America. This success is the consequence of particular institutional arrangements and increased knowledge.

We are enjoying the benefits of science applied in the context of freedom, the rule of law, moderately secure property rights and a government that at least plunders with some modesty.

Being born in America is like holding a winning lottery ticket.

For the individual, however, winning the jackpot guarantees neither happiness nor success. Today, where material abundance is the norm, good character and self-discipline may be critically scarce resources.

Yet these values are requisite to a successful society. Can we expect them to develop among people who presume material plenty as a birthright?

A century ago, most people faced concrete reality checks impossible to ignore. Forty-three percent of our labor force was in agriculture. Today it's three percent.

In those days job tests were obvious, mistakes were odious and what counted were results. Competence and character were made evident.

These dirty, dangerous and demanding jobs, however, comprise trivial percentages of the work done today. Can the citizens of a society in which most people are rich relative to their counterparts around the world maintain sufficient character and self-discipline to remain that way?

Will leaders emerge to exemplify these values? If they do, will citizens emulate them?

The year 1900 was marked by harbingers of material progress and a sustained drive for political and ethical reform. Since then the pendulum has swung. If we are lucky, it will swing back again.

There is reason for hope. The technology that gives us material progress also compresses the time required to reveal flawed character. Liars, hypocrites and opportunists are more quickly exposed and reviled.

The character of those we choose in the 2000 elections will provide hints for our future.

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